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Thursday, August 6, 2009

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US Mint Gold and Silver Bullion Sales July 2009


During the month of July, sales of physical bullion at the United States Mint were somewhat split. In the case of silver, sales as measured by the number of ounces sold reached the second highest level of the year. In the case of gold, sales as measured in ounces marked the second lowest total for the year.

The table below displays the number of ounces of gold bullion sold by the United States Mint during the month of July. As the case has been all year, sales were limited to one ounce American Gold Eagles and one ounce American Silver Eagles. Platinum bullion and fractional gold bullion coins were not offered.

July 2009 US Mint Bullion Sales
1 oz. 1/2 oz. 1/4 oz. 1/10 oz. Total oz. YTD Total oz.
Gold Eagle 86,000 - - - 86,000 756,500
Silver Eagle 2,810,000 2,810,000 16,634,500
Platinum Eagle - - - - -

Sales of the Gold Eagle reached 86,000 ounces. As mentioned, this represented the second lowest monthly sales total this year. The low of 65,000 took place in May. It should be noted that the level of sales still remains above the monthly total reach one year ago in July 2008 when 50,000 ounces were sold. Although the furious pace of gold sales has slowed, it remains historically high.

Sales of Silver Eagle bullion coins reached 2,810,000, marking the second highest monthly total of the year. The highest level was reached in March when 3,132,000 ounces were sold. This month's total represents a hefty125% increase over the sales levels from the year ago period. Notably, the number of ounces of silver sold year to date is now approaching the total number of ounces sold during the entire year of 2008, which was 19,583,500. One more month of strong sales would push this year's total above the mark.

Sunday, August 2, 2009

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Silver and Gold Investments

During a bad economy, especially when major banks fail, the first thing that comes across many minds is to cash out on all investments and hide your hard-earned money under your mattress or a safe within your home. Savvy investors do the exact opposite. Smart investors will keep their money invested and some will even invest more money in the market. In today’s market, even the savviest investors are very concerned about their investments, even in the silver and gold markets.

The dilemma of financially stabilizing the world economy is usually met with the fiscal Establishment printing more money, Euros and dollars. Freshly printed money that does not purchase the desire of the government, causes inflation and will continue to do so until people reject paper money. Savvy investors believe that until there is official use of gold and silver in the global monetary system our international financial system will never stabilize.

Investors have many reasons why they are leery concerning precious metals especially in the middle of a financial crisis. Silver is not always thought as a metal of monetary means anymore, therefore it is not purchased as such. Fortunately insightful financial investors believe they can use gold and silver, not for profits, but for barriers to protect against depression and inflation, plus they do not want to miss an opportunity to achieve greater profits in financial slumps. Even with studies and observations about the market of precious metals, numerous astute investors are sure that silver has the potential of greater returns in various markets. Although financial history dictates the instability of silver will lead for it to perform better than gold in terms of percentage on the upside but worse on the downside, industrial demand on silver can cause an increase in commodity prices and silver investments may thrive in this situation.

A number of investors declare that silver is not a monetary metal anymore because of its industrial uses and the IMF (International Metalworkers Federation-who track precious metals that nations hold) would agree with them as they care little about silver. Gold and silver have been used as money for more than a thousand years and people determine what should serve as currency of money. Money currencies have obvious flaws and when governments inflate money supplies the flaws become evident. Securing investments in gold and silver will allow individuals to have ‘fruits of labor’ even during hard economic times.

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The Gold and Silver Markets Continue to Survive in A Bad Economy

According to some experts, the U.S. economy will bounce back by 2010. Investors are still wary about the possibility of losing their investments in stocks and bonds. Even though gold and silver are considered to be more stable than stocks, investors are still very concerned.

Although the statistics are not very accurate, it is estimated that retail investments have an allocation in gold and silver at the most two percent. Since the “financial layman” barely has knowledge of the price of gold and silver in any market, a number of financial advisors and retail investors don’t have a reason why a person should choose gold or silver or how they would go about making an investment.

While gold has made a strong comeback, the US stock markets have less pressure again after a seven year low close on the Dow Jones. There is definitely a chance of panic when the stock market does poorly and has a negative effect on the worldwide economy, even thou gold and silver procured have produced sound foundations in the short, intermediate and long terms.

Desperate attempts by central banks and governments to delay deflation of currency are hindering the market, and even creating a worldwide crisis, while investors move to more tangible hard assets to protect their investments.

The non-specialized, sporadic media coverage of gold and silver hasn’t changed over the years, and remains indifferent almost negative with regard to financial conditions. The lack of coverage would indicate gold and silver are in the primary to middle stages of the bull market. “Gold fever” causes misconceptions in the commodities market. The fact is that just a small fraction of retail investors have an allocated interest in gold and silver, the overweight metals.

Lately, there have been misconceptions about gold. For example, many believe that gold is overvalued and many investors will experience a great lose. As a matter of fact, there has been polls taken that say numerous analysts are very optimistic about the gold and silver markets. These analysts remain positive toward gold and silver despite current worldwide economic and financial disasters.

Apprehensive analysts are usually stockbrokers, product sellers and others that have a vested interest in the negative outlook towards gold and silver. To find out further information about the gold and silver markets, search online for the latest news.

Friday, July 31, 2009

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Silver ETF Anomalies, National Gold Exchange, Regan Gold and Silver Coins


I'm still catching up after a vacation in Europe. For now here are links to some recommended articles about gold, silver, and precious metals from around the net.

Multiple Anomalies Detected in Silver ETFs

A recently released working paper on statistical and factual anomalies in silver ETFs including internal duplicates, weight duplicates, statistical clustering, and cross-reference duplicates. From the conclusions section: "The only way for all of these anomalies to occur together as noted in this paper, is via systemic fraud or gross accounting error bordering on jaw-dropping incompetence."

Greenlight Holds Bullion

A $5 billion hedge-fund firm switched its entire holding in the Gold ETF to physical gold bullion. During the first quarter the firm held 4.2 million shares of the SPDR Gold Trust.

New law boosts gold bar sale in South Africa

Until recently it was illegal for South Africans to hold unwrought gold, such as gold in bar form. The law change has sparked a surge in new bullion demand.

National Gold Exchange Inc of Tampa

National Gold Exchange, one of the world's largest coin wholesalers, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The company has more than $50 million in debts.

Catching the Gold Bug

From a few weeks ago. The Wall Street Journal ran this high profile piece on gold investing. Someone interviewed for the article said: "When you’re in uncharted economic waters, people buy gold."

Ronald Regan Gold and Silver Coins Proposed

Should Ronald Reagan appear on gold and silver commemorative coins? Over the years there have apparently been several proposals to put his likeness on a coin, but none ever gained sufficient support to become law.

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

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Arensberg bullish on silver


Gene Arensberg, precious metals analyst and author of the popular Got Gold Report, reiterates in his recent report his bullishness for silver. Although Arensberg is bullish on gold over the longer term, he sees the potential for more immediate upside action in silver.

Arensberg notes that iShares Silver Trust (SLV), the largest silver ETF, lost no holdings in the last reporting week but gained 42.07 tons the prior week. Further, the trust continues to hold more silver than the original custodian agreement called for, now reporting 8,766.93 tons of the metal. SLV turned out to be much more successful than anticipated. Still, Arensberg recommends that SLV investors convert their shares to physical silver.

He notes that premiums on the common forms of physical silver are “. . . back to normal or near normal and availability seemingly adequate regionally, now might be an excellent time to convert shares of SLV into the real deal physical metal.” Later in the report, Arensberg says, “Call it intuition, or trader’s instinct, or whatever, we believe those planning to convert gold and silver ETFs into physical metal might want to do so with a sense of urgency now (emphasis his), as we doubt that premiums will remain near normal for an extended period. Regardless if gold and silver move substantially higher or lower we expect to see premiums moving higher toward the end of the year and maybe much sooner.

From my perspective, I see premiums on physical silver and gold products about as low as they are going to get.

Increasing Arensberg’s bullishness on silver is his analysis of the large commercials’ positions in the silver futures markets. The LCs have increased their short positions in gold, but have steadily refused to take bigger short positions in silver. See Arensberg’s Got Gold Report for his analysis.

Finally, Arensberg recommends that long-term precious metals holders consider switching from gold to silver because of not only market conditions but also because of the gold/silver ratio, which is hovering in the 70:1 area. This is a recommendation with which I agree.

Historically, silver has outperformed gold(on a percentage basis) in all precious metals bull markets. Now, the silver market is experiencing a genuine shortage that should cause silver to continue its trend of outperforming gold.

Sunday, July 26, 2009

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Gold Investment Report - 2009 Second Quarter

The World Gold Council is out with their latest Gold Investment Digest, providing an analysis of gold for the second quarter. The most notable aspect of the report is the incredible slow down in investment demand experienced during the quarter.

During the second quarter, the price of gold rose from $916.50 per ounce to $934.50. This slight gain compared to much larger gains in major world stock markets and the Dow Jones Commodity Index. Gold had reached a peak price of $981.75 during the quarter before moving lower.

Investment demand for gold showed a big decline from the previous levels, but remained positive. For the second quarter, Gold ETFs showed inflows of 46 tonnes. This compared to inflows of 459 tonnes during the first quarter.

Sales of coins and bars started the second quarter very strong before tapering from May onwards. The report also notes the decline in margins on coins and bars as availability constraints eased. As I have noted in some of the monthly bullion sales reports, although sales have shown month to month declines, levels remain far above year ago levels.

While some have pointed to the recent slow down in investment demand as evidence that the so-called "new gold rush" is over, I think this call is premature. During the quarter world stock markets and sentiment about the economy rebounded from the depths of despair to the current "don't worry be happy" mentality. Despite the shift, gold investors have remained patient and continued overall accumulation of the metal. The allure of an investment which has delivered positive annual returns for eight consecutive years, compared to the perpetual boom and bust of other asset classes, seems to have an enduring appeal.

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Gold and Silver Eagle Bullion Sales June 2009


The US Mint's sales of gold and silver bullion coins during June 2009 showed increases from both the prior month and year ago levels. The increases came amidst two interesting developments for the US Mint's bullion coin programs.

In the middle of the month, the US Mint announced that their long standing rationing programs would be lifted. Authorized purchasers of bullion coins had been limited in the total number of coins that they could order. This had been cited by many as a sign of the high physical demand for precious metals which would eventually drive prices higher.

Later in the month, the US Mint made the seemingly contradictory announcement that the American Gold Buffalo bullion coin offering would be canceled for 2009. This had been the US Mint's 24 karat gold bullion coin, launched in 2006 as a way of competing with other world mints that produced gold coins with greater fineness than the 22 karat Gold Eagle.

Here's a look at the US Mint's gold, silver, and platinum bullion sales during the month of June 2009. A year to date total appears in the last column.

June 2009 US Mint Bullion Sales
1 oz. 1/2 oz. 1/4 oz. 1/10 oz. Total oz. YTD Total oz.
Gold Eagle 116,000 - - - 116,000 670,000
Silver Eagle 2,245,000 2,245,000 13,824,500
Platinum Eagle - - - - -

Sales of the Gold Eagle were still confined to only the one ounce bullion coin. A total of 116,000 ounces were sold, which was close to double the prior month's sales of 65,000 ounces. This also marks a huge increase from the year ago period when only 15,500 ounces of gold were sold. It's interesting to note that the sales increase comes amidst a down month for gold. Physical gold buyers have tended to increase purchases during period of price decline and curtail purchases during periods of price appreciation.

Sales of the Silver Eagle reached 2,245,000 ounces. This was an increase from the prior month when 1,904,500 ounces were sold and an increase from the year ago period when 1,735,500. With the year now half completed, the American Silver Eagle remains on pace to exceed last year's record sales of 19,583,500 ounces.

Once again, the US Mint did not offer the Platinum Eagle bullion coin in any size.

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Gold, Silver & Platinum 2009 Second Quarter Performance


With the second quarter behind us, let's take a look at the performance of gold, silver, and platinum for the second quarter of 2009 and year to date.

All of the metals posted gains, but at single digit levels. The best performer for the second quarter was silver with a gain of 6.33%, followed by platinum with a gain of 5.52%, and then gold with a gain of 1.96%. The closing numbers don't tell the full story. At the beginning of June, precious metals prices had spiked. At this recent peak, silver had been up as much as 22% for the quarter. Platinum and gold were also showing heftier gains at this time.

2009 Second Quarter Gold, Silver, and Platinum Performance
31-Mar-09 30-Jun-09 Change Percent
Gold 916.5 934.50 18.00 1.96%
Silver 13.11 13.94 0.83 6.33%
Platinum 1,124.00 1186.00 62.00 5.52%

On a year to date basis, the top precious metal performer remains as platinum with a gain of 32.07% on the year. This is followed by silver with a gain of 29.19% and gold with a gain of 7.44%. The performance of the metals had lined up in the same manner at the close of the first quarter.

2009 YTD Gold, Silver, and Platinum Performance
30-Dec-08 30-Jun-09 Change Percent
Gold 869.75 934.50 64.75 7.44%
Silver 10.79 13.94 3.15 29.19%
Platinum 898.00 1186.00 288 32.07%

Thursday, July 23, 2009

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Precious Metals Investment Tax Rates


Gains from the sale of investments in precious metals are currently subject to a tax rate of 28%. This compares to the current long term capital gains rate of 15%, which applies to other investment classes such as stocks and bonds. A bill has been introduced which seeks to tax precious metals investors at the same preferential rates afforded to other investors.

Precious metals investments are considered "collectibles" under the current tax code. Gold, silver, and other precious metals are lumped into the same classification as works of art, rugs, antiques, and stamps. The tax rate for "collectibles gains" is currently 28% regardless of whether the assets were held for more than one year.

The classification as collectibles comes from the section of the Tax Code which describes the capital gains tax rates which apply to different asset classes. This section references a definition of collectibles found in another section of the code, which interestingly provides an exception for certain precious metals. This exception is curiously disregarded for the purposes of capital gains taxation.

The bill S. 1367 Fair Treatment for Precious Metals Investors Act seeks to rectify the disadvantageous tax rates imposed on precious metals investors. The bill would amend the Tax Code to preserve the exception created for certain coins and bullion. After the amendment, common precious metals investments such as American Eagle bullion coins would no longer be classified as "collectibles" and would be eligible for lower long term capital gains rates.

In order to become law, the bill would need to be approved in the House of Representatives, the Senate, and signed by the President. A similar bill was introduced in 2007, but it never gained the support necessary to become law. You can following the progress of the current bill on GovTrack.

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US Mint Cancels 2009 American Gold Buffalo Bullion Coins

CoinWorld has reported that the US Mint has canceled the American Gold Buffalo bullion coin offering for 2009. The production of one ounce proof coins for collectors is still planned. This bullion coin program was originally launched in 2006, as the first 24 karat gold bullion coin offering from the United States Mint.

While the majority of the United States Mint's gold bullion sales are derived from the 22 karat American Gold Eagle bullion coins, the Gold Buffaloes still account for a sizable amount of sales. Last year, Gold Buffalo bullion sales tallied 172,000 ounces, while Gold Eagle bullion sales tallied 860,500 ounces.

The Gold Buffalo Coins were also viewed as an offering which allowed the US Mint to compete with other world mints that offer 24 karat gold coins. The US Mint does continue to sell First Spouse Gold Coins minted in 24 karat gold, however, these coins are sold directly by the US Mint at high premiums usually associated with collectors coins. The half ounce gold coins are currently priced at $616 for the uncirculated finish.

News of the canceled bullion coin offering is particularly surprising given the news that the US Mint had ended rationing for other gold and silver bullion coins. This seemed to be an indication that supply constraints were lifting and heavy demand was falling, suggesting a return to normality. Also of note, other world mints are taking steps to expand their bullion coin offerings during this time of increased interest in precious metals.

The cancelation of American Gold Buffalo bullion coins raises many questions, but I doubt reasonable answers will be forthcoming.

Update: CoinWorld published a subsequent story stating that the 2009 Gold Buffalo Bullion coins are not canceled. The information received from the US Mint which was the basis of their initial story was not correct.

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Platinum & Palladium Bullion from Royal Canadian Mint


The Royal Canadian Mint has revived two bullion coin programs that had been previously been suspended for a number of years. This includes the Platinum Maple Leaf, with bullion coins already available, and the Palladium Maple Leaf, which is planned for later this year.

The Platinum Maple Leaf was originally launched by the Royal Canadian Mint in 1988 and offered in 1 oz, 1/2 oz, 1/4 oz, and 1/10 oz sizes. The platinum bullion coins were offered until 1999 when the price of platinum started to rise and demand for the coins started to drop. Ten years later, the RCM revived the program due to demand from distributors. So far, the 2009 Platinum Maple Leaf has only been produced in 1 ounce size. The RCM does not sell the coins directly, but they can be purchased through most bullion dealers.

For 2009, the RCM seems to be the only major world mint producing platinum bullion coins. The United States Mint typically produces the popular Platinum Eagle bullion coins. In late 2008, the US Mint announced that the launch of 2009 dated coins would be delayed. To date no coins have been available and no details have emerged about the status of the program.

The Palladium Maple Leaf was the world's first palladium bullion coin offered. (Note: Some mints have issued commemorative or special issue coins minted in palladium.) The coins were introduced in 2005 and limited to production of only 40,000 coins, which were all sold. The novelty of palladium bullion wore off by 2007 when only 15,000 coins were sold and the program was ended.

Palladium bullion coins currently carry high premiums due to the fact that no major world mints currently produce the coins, and the brief production by the RCM was in very limited numbers. So far the RCM has stated that they intend to begin producing palladium bullion coins for 2009, but no availability date has been provided.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

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US Mint Gold and Silver Rationing Ends

The United States Mint unceremoniously ended the allocation programs which had been limiting the number of Gold and Silver Eagle bullion coins that authorized purchasers could order. The announcement came in the form of a memorandum sent to authorized purchasers on Monday.

June 15, 2009

MEMORANDUM TO ALL AMERICAN EAGLE GOLD AND SILVER BULLION
AUTHORIZED PURCHASERS

SUBJECT: American Eagle Gold and Silver One Ounce Bullion Coin Allocations

Effective immediately, the United States is lifting the allocation process.

You may place your orders under the standard ordering procedures. The ordering minimum and incremental quantities apply.

Thank you for your patience during this past year. We appreciate your continued support.

Amidst high demand for precious metals and a constrained supply of precious metals blanks, the US Mint had implemented allocation programs for Gold and Silver Eagle bullion coins. The allocation program for the American Silver Eagle began on April 21, 2008 when the price of silver was $17.88 per ounce. The allocation program for American Gold Eagle began on August 15, 2008 when the price of gold was $786.50.

The United States Mint had also taken other measures to deal the physical precious metals shortage. First, they had restricted production to only one ounce gold and one ounce silver bullion coin options. Typically a range of fractional bullion coins including 1/2 ounce, 1/4 ounce, and 1/10 ounce coins is offered. Second, they had announced the temporary delay of production for platinum bullion coins and 24 karat Gold Buffalo coins. Third, they delayed the production of gold and silver coins produced for collectors in order to divert all precious metals blanks to the production of bullion coins.

The US Mint has not announced whether production fractional bullion coins, 24 karat gold bullion coins, platinum bullion coins, and gold and silver collector coins has resumed.

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Gold Confiscation, Missing Royal Canadian Mint Gold, Bernard von Nothaus Indictment


As gold contemplates the $1,000 barrier, here's a roundup of gold, silver, and precious metals related stories that are interesting for one reason or another. Each headline comes with a snippet of commentary. Enjoy.

A Myth Concerning Gold Confiscation

Examination of a clause in Executive Order 6102, which receives little attention. In addition to the exemption from confiscation for numismatic gold, there was also an exemption for up to five ounces of gold per person.

U.S. Gold, Going or Completely Gone?

According to the United States Geological Survey, nearly 3,000 metric tonnes of gold were exported during 2008 in the form of "gold compounds." Gold compounds consist of products containing gold content such as gold paint. The amount of gold claimed to have been exported in this format is more than 14 times the annual US gold mine production. What is going on here?

Mint can't account for missing gold

In another story about missing gold, an audit of the Royal Canadian Mint turned up a discrepancy between the mint's accounting records and physical precious metals holdings for gold, silver, and other precious metals. The article also describes the largest reported theft from the mint when a machinist pocketed 85 ounces of gold.

Liberty Dollar - Federal Indictment

Bernard von Nothaus, who created an "alternative currency" of gold and silver Liberty Dollars was formally charged "with uttering and passing, and attempting to utter and pass, a coin of silver in resemblance of genuine coins of the United States in the denominations of five dollars and greater, and intended for use as current money". More than a year ago, the headquarters of his company was raided by the federal government and more than two tons of gold, silver, and copper coins were confiscated.

Buffet Gets 'Comeuppance' After Gold Outperforms

Every time someone writes a negative article about gold, they invariable measure the returns since January 1980 to support their preordained conclusion that gold is a bad investment. Someone has finally turned the tables and compared an investment in gold to an investment in Berkshire Hathaway stock since May 2005, a much more favorable investment time frame for gold.

Gold: Headed For a Bubble?

A particularly vacuous article courtesy of the Wall Street Journal. From the title of the article I thought it would at least have some substance, but it turns into another run through of the "risks of buying bullion" and the lack of a measurable intrinsic value. The author winds up the article by suggesting that Treasuries are a preferable safe haven to gold.

Northwestern Mutual Makes First Gold Buy in 152 Years

For the first time in history, Northwestern Mutual, the third largest US life insurance company, has invested in gold. A great quote from CEO Edward Zore, "The downside risk is limited, but the upside is large. We have stocks in our portfolio that lost 95 percent. Gold is not going down to $90.” Indeed.

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US Mint Gold and Silver Bullion Sales Through May 2009


As in the past, I wanted to write another post examining the US Mint's monthly gold, silver, and platinum bullion coin sales. Previously these figures were a flawed method of examining demand for physical precious metals due to the rationing program in place from the United States Mint. As long as authorized purchasers of US Mint bullion coins were restricted in the quantities they could purchase, it was difficult to ascertain how much unmet demand existed behind the rationing wall.

However, this month the figures might be closer to providing a useful measure. As I mentioned in several posts this month, a likely combination of decreasing demand and increasing supply has turned the Gold and Silver Eagle shortage to a surplus. For the first time since the rationing programs began, authorized purchasers did not purchase the maximum number of coins allotted by the US Mint.

Here's a look at the US Mint gold, silver, and platinum bullion sales for the month of May 2009, along with a year to date total in the final column.

April 2009 US Mint Bullion Sales

1 oz. 1/2 oz. 1/4 oz. 1/10 oz. Total oz. YTD Total oz.
Gold Eagle 65,000 - - - 65,000 554,500
Gold Buffalo -


-
Silver Eagle 1,904,500


1,904,500 11,579,500
Platinum Eagle - - - - -

There were sales of 65,000 ounces of gold during May 2009. Once again this consisted entirely of one ounce 2009 Gold Eagles, as the US Mint did not offer fractional coins or the 24 karat Gold Buffalo. This was a big drop from the prior month when 147,500 ounces were sold, however it is more than double the number of coins sold in the year ago period of May 2008 when 31,500 ounces were sold.

There were sales of 1,904,500 ounces of silver during May 2009. This was a decline from the prior month when 2,518,000 ounces were sold and a decline, but still up from the year ago period of May 2008 when 1,516,000 ounces were sold. Sales of silver bullion still remain on pace for a record breaking year. The current record was set during 2008 when 19,583,500 ounces were sold for the entire year.

Platinum bullion coins were still not offered for sale by the US Mint. No platinum bullion coins have been offered since November 2008. The US Mint has not provided any additional statements on the status of platinum bullion coins. Notably, the Royal Canadian Mint has been able to produce and sell their Platinum Maple Leaf coins during 2008.

Based on the figures for the gold and silver bullion sales, demand for physical precious metals is apparently dropping significantly at a time when the market prices of the metals seemed to be gaining some momentum. This could be a seasonal impact since prior sales figures show the sales trailing off during the summer months. Or it could be a signal that some buyers are taking pause to see if the much ballyhooed "green shots" actually take root or whither up and die.

Disclosure: Long physical gold and silver

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Gold and Silver Eagle Shortage Becomes Surplus


For countless months, authorized purchasers of US Mint gold and bullion coins have been subject to a rationing process, which limited the number of coins they could purchase. The rationing program had been put into place after the demand for gold and silver coins exceeded the US Mint's ability to supply them. In a few recent posts I have provided some indications that the shortage of American Silver Eagles and American Gold Eagles might be ending. There's yet another indication that the end of the shortage and rationing is close at hand.

Throughout the rationing period, the entire supply of coins available from the US Mint had been divvied up and sold to the authorized purchasers. For the first time since rationing began, the US Mint failed to sell their total production of Gold and Silver Eagles.

Dave Harper, the editor of Numismatic News, writes:

In the prior two weeks, the 14 purchasers authorized to buy the American Eagle coins from the U.S. Mint have not taken the maximum number of coins that are available, leaving the Mint with an extra 39,000 one-ounce gold American Eagles and 185,000 extra silver American Eagles.

To my knowledge, the rationing program for Gold and Silver Eagles still remains in place despite the surplus of recent weeks. The US Mint is likely waiting to build an inventory of bullion before attempting to remove purchasing restrictions completely.

When the rationing program was instated by the US Mint, it generated a lot of attention from blogs and news sites. The rationing was cited as evidence of the overwhelming demand for physical precious metals that would eventually carry market prices higher. With the opposite situation developing, opposite predictions have emerged.

In befuddlement to both arguments, the the disconnect between physical demand and market price continues. Amidst the unraveling of the physical scarcity situation, the prices for gold and silver have risen to multi-month highs with many predicting impending breakouts, which will carry prices even higher.

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Gold Dispensing ATMs, Hedge Funds Buy Gold, World Gold Production


With gold now reaching it's highest price of the year, gold related stories seem to be popping up in more places. Here are a few gold related articles and blog posts from the past week that are worth the read.

German firm plans gold ATMs to meet growing demand

It seems like other countries are always creating new ways to make gold easier to purchase amidst growing demand. India started selling gold coins in post offices around the country. Now Germany, Switzerland, and Austria will have gold dispensing automatic teller machines in various public locations. In the United States, the response to high demand has been to ration the supply of gold.

Hedge Funds Making Big Bets on Gold

Hedge funds are waking up to gold. Paulson & Co bought 31.5 million shares of the gold ETF worth $2.8 billion. Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine bought 26.5 million shares worth $2.4 billion.

Bullion Premiums Now Normal

As I have explored in some other recent posts, the premiums for gold and silver have been contracting recently amidst the rising prices. Premiums are now back to normal for most gold and silver coins.

Gold production in the world

A recently published piece examining gold production in 2008. World gold production peaked in 2001 and has been on the decline ever since. Also, there have been some interesting shifts in top gold producing countries.

Money Magazine, gold, and hedge funds

Watching Money Magazine as a contrary indicator. They recently pass off gold as a "speculative play" that has delivered "lousy returns" since its below the peak reached in 1980. They conveniently ignore gold's 300%+ return since 2000.

Gold's Extremists

Is it just me, or does it seem like mainstream publications all start publishing negative gold stories when the price starts rising? Forbes trots out some analyst zingers, "fundamentals not supportive", "crowded trade", and "ripe for correction". Excuse me while I go buy some more gold.

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Coming Soon: Rhodium Bullion Coins

Rhodium is a member of the platinum metals group. It is silvery white in appearance and highly reflective. It has been used as a finish for jewelry and mirrors, electric connections in aircraft turbine engines, in catalytic converters of automobiles, and in alloys with platinum and palladium. Rhodium is known as one of the most scarce and expensive precious metals, but there have been few avenues for investing in the rhodium. This will soon change when the world's first rhodium bullion coin becomes available.

Total rhodium supply for 2008 was a mere 695,000 ounces according to Johnson Matthey. To put this in perspective, for 2008 total platinum supply was 5.97 million ounces and total gold supply was 3,468 tonnes. Two regions account for the majority of all rhodium supply with 82% coming from South Africa and 12% coming from Russia.

Total demand for the rhodium in 2008 was 689,000 ounces. Demand by application was dominated by auto, which accounted for 84%.

Rhodium reached a peak price of $10,010 per ounce in July 2008 before experiencing a precipitous drop which brought the price below $1,000 per ounce. The price of rhodium is now back up to $1,300 per ounce. The incredible price decline for this scarce metal has tantalized bargain hunters, but there have been few options for investing in rhodium. The few options available include pooled accounts or the purchase of scientific element samples. The upcoming rhodium bullion coins will provide an easier alternative, especially for investors.

The Cohen Mint produced the first investment grade .999 fine rhodium coin on April 29, 2009. The coins are expected to be available for sale to the public within the next few weeks. Eitan Cohen, the owner and operator of the Cohen Mint, was kind enough to answer a few questions on rhodium and the new rhodium bullion coins.

How many rhodium bullion coins are being produced and when will they be available?

We have the capability of producing as many coins as there is a demand for. We will be selling the coins individually, and also in wholesale. There will not be any minimum order requirements.

What sizes will the coins be available in? Can you provide an idea of the projected price?

Initially, the Rhodium bullion will come in a 1 gram size. We decided both in terms of pricing as well as recognition, the 1 gram size would be perfect for this new bullion piece. The projected price at current raw material values hovers around $100.00. Now that price not only includes the coin, it includes the sealed plastic coin slab that will securely encase the coin, which is perfect for display as well as protection, a certificate of authenticity with each coin, and free priority shipping to your door.

How long have you been working on perfecting the process of minting coins in rhodium, and how does minting coins in rhodium differ from other metals?

We've been working on this for over a year now, its cost us a lot of money as well as time. The work involved in getting this project off the ground has been tremendous, easily the biggest thing our company has ever done. This is really an historic moment, where a truly unique precious metal product comes onto the market, and we're just excited to be the ones to have pioneered it.

Making coins out of Rhodium has got to be as different from making other kinds of coins as can be. Normally, making coins is a very straightforward process. You roll an ingot out into a sheet, punch blank disks, and then stamp the disks with the design to make coins. This process works with just about any metal you can think of, copper, silver, gold, platinum, palladium, etc. You try and do that with Rhodium and you'll end up with a bunch of broken flakes and powder. Rhodium has uncommon properties that make it extremely hard, brittle and down right stubborn, features that do not lend themselves to making coins easily.

The way we had to approach it was to come up with a completely new method, a method that was developed through trial and error, through extensive research, and through our own testing here at our facility. After nearly giving up a dozen times, we reached a "eureka" moment a couple of weeks ago, when we realised that we finally cracked the code, and would be able to set up full scale production. Boy, was that exciting.

After rhodium climbed above $10,000 per ounce, the price collapsed below $1,000. Demand continues to be dominated by a single industry. What is your take on the market for rhodium?

There will always be demand for Rhodium, and the price is temporarily depressed due to the terrible state of our economy and the even worse state of all automobile manufacturers. What's important to keep in mind is that this artificial price dip is not forever, and there will come a point in the near future when people will start demanding cars again, manufacturers will start building them again, and the prices for many commodities will start to rise. Rhodium will be on the vanguard of this revival, and will climb back up to prices that will make us look back longingly at present values.

As the green movement takes a bigger hold on our world, Rhodium's use in cleaning factory and power plant emissions will grow to be a substantial chunk of global Rhodium usage. Internal combustion engines are not going away any time soon, and of anything, emissions standards are only going to get stricter. This metal, along with platinum and palladium will feel a resurgence once the economy begins to pick back up and consumer confidence reawakens. Now is a great time to buy.

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Gold and Silver Paper and Physical Markets Realign


Late last year and early this year, a continual observation of the gold and silver markets was the disconnect between the prices quoted on paper markets and the prices that you would actually need to pay to buy physical precious metals. In the past few weeks premiums for physical gold and silver have declined as the prices quoted on the paper market have risen, basically bringing the two markets back into alignment.

Back in October 2008, I had examined 100 ounce silver bars as an example of the excessive premiums being paid for physical precious metals. I collected some data from recently completed eBay auctions that showed the average price of the 100 ounce silver bar ranging from $1,329 to $1,557 while the market price of silver ranged from $8.88 to $10.89. This represented premiums ranging from $39.62% to 56.45%. This was particularly ridiculous since the 100 ounce silver bar has been traditionally viewed as a low premium method for silver investing.

Reviewing some data for eBay auctions completed yesterday now shows the prices paid for 100 ounce silver bars ranging from $1,450 to $1,500. At yesterday's closing price of silver of $14.09, this represents a much more reasonable premium of about 3% to 6%.

Peculiarly, the decline in premium is a close match to the increase in price for spot silver. If you invested in silver by buying physical bars back in October, you might be showing zero profit even though the market price is up over 40%.

Future Gold and Silver Price Implications?

When the premiums for physical precious metals were high, it was viewed as a sign of heavy demand amidst a diminished supply that would eventually force market prices to move higher. Now that the disconnect between the paper and physical markets has seemingly resolved itself, is this a signal of slower demand that will lead to lower prices?

Despite the implication of slower demand, I think the realignment of the markets represents a long term positive for the price of gold and silver. Back when premiums were high, I am sure that many potential investors backed away from the market when they were faced with excessive premiums. Potential investors will now actually be able to buy physical gold and silver around the market prices. This is a much better environment for fostering mainstream demand to keep gold and silver moving higher.

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US Mint Bullion Sales for April 2009


The US Mint's bullion sales figures for April 2009 remained robust. The amount of gold bullion sold during the month was the highest of the year. Silver bullion sold was the second highest figure for the year. Once again, the US Mint did not sell any platinum bullion coins. This offering has been delayed with no indication of when sales might begin. Similarly, the 24 karat Gold Buffalo coins were not offered as they are also delayed.

The sales totals for all bullion coins offered by the United States Mint are presented below.

April 2009 US Mint Bullion Sales

1 oz. 1/2 oz. 1/4 oz. 1/10 oz. Total oz.
Gold Eagle 147,500 - - - 147,500
Gold Buffalo -


-
Silver Eagle 2,518,000


2,518,000
Platinum Eagle - - - - -

There were 147,500 ounces of gold sold during April 2009. This consisted entirely of one ounce gold coins, as fractional coins were still not offered.This represented the highest sales level of the year to date. The prior month had sales of 136,500. Sales for the year ago period of April 2008 were 47,500 ounces.

There were 2,518,000 ounces of silver sold during April 2009. Silver bullion sales continue to be at higher levels, on pace for a record year. Since the coins are subject to rationing, this might be an indication that the Silver Eagle shortage might be ending. The prior month silver bullion sales were 3,132,000. Sales for the year ago period of April 2008 were 1,584,000.

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Palladium Bullion Coins Proposed

With the price of palladium down from the peak price reached during 2008, there seems to be increased interest in creating methods for investing in palladium. I previously wrote a post on the proposal to create a palladium ETF. Now there is a proposal for a United States palladium bullion coin.

A bill was introduced in the United States Senate on April 1, 2009 to create palladium bullion and numismatic coins for the year 2009. The coins would bear the design of the 1907 Ultra High Relief Gold Double Eagle and contain one ounce of .995 palladium. The bill was sent to committee and the prospects of becoming law are uncertain.

According to data from Johnson Matthey, palladium supply for 2008 was 7.51 million ounces while demand was 7.19 million ounces. Investment demand only accounted for 4% of overall demand.

There are no palladium bullion investment coins currently produced by any of the major world mints. The Royal Canadian Mint briefly offered the Palladium Maple Leaf. The coin was only offered from 2005 to 2007 before it was discontinued. They sold approximately 40,000 in 2005, 70,000 in 2006, and 15,000 in 2007.

Current methods of investing in physical palladium are primarily one ounce palladium bars or the Palladium Maple Leaf coins. The coins usually carry premiums of over 50% and it can be difficult to locate a bullion dealer who keeps them in stock. If a new palladium bullion coin is produced, it would likely be available for much lower premiums and much easier to locate.

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Is the Silver Eagle Shortage Ending


World mints have struggled to keep up with the booming demand for precious metals. The situation has been ongoing for more than a year and frustrated physical silver investors with suspensions, rationing, and delays. There are finally some signs that the shortage may be coming to an end, in particular for the American Silver Eagle bullion coin.


The Silver Eagle shortage first began in February 2008. The US Mint became so overwhelmed with orders for the popular silver bullion coin that they were forced to suspend taking new orders. The suspension was only in place until March 2009, however, sales were resumed on a rationed basis. Authorized purchasers were limited in the number of coins that they could order. Early suggestions indicated that the rationed amounts covered only a fraction of the overall demand.

More than one year later, there are some indications that the situation may finally be abating. As I mentioned in my post on the US Mint's March 2009 Bullion Sales, sales of silver and gold reached extremely high levels. Sales of silver coins were actually the highest monthly total since 1986. Since these are rationed sales, the high level was more of an indication of reduced supply constraints than increased demand.

Recently, there have been more indications at the dealer level that the shortage may be ending. One dealer has reported that delays for delivery of Silver Eagles are shortening, and premiums for the coins is declining. At the height of the shortage premiums were as high as $4.50 over the spot price of silver. Premiums have now pulled back to around $3.00 over spot.